The motion for confidence had been moved in the Parliament yesterday. The Prime Minister gave a speech enlightening the progress made in these four years and the importance of the N-Deal. The arguments are still going on for and against the confidence motion.
Today, sometime in the evening, voting will take place. The question is, will the UPA government win?
After hard bargaining, the numbers seemed to be tilting in favour of the Manmohan Singh government with UPA managers securing the support of most Independents and small north-east parties as well as successfully raiding the NDA camp. The ruling coalition is confident that there would be crucial desertions from BJP and Shiv Sena ranks.
The interesting aspect of this tussle for power is that the notorious Betting Mafia of Bombay predicts that UPA will win the vote of confidence.
Dr Manmohan Singh became the 6th prime minister since 1979 to face a trust vote in Parliament. The no-confidence motion was moved for the first time way back in 1979. The then Prime Minister Charan Singh never faced the House and resigned. A decade later, VP Singh became the PM in December 1989. He won the motion that time but lost another in November 1990, beaten 142-to-346.
Chandra Shekhar, who succeeded Singh, won a trust motion in 1990 but resigned five months later after the Congress withdrew support to his government. P V Narasimha Rao then won the confidence vote in July 1991, with 265 ayes and 251 nays and his government went on to last the full five-year term.
In June 1996, H D Deve Gowda, as the head of the United Front government, won a trust motion but lost it 10 months later when Congress again withdrew support to his government.
I K Gujral won the vote of confidence in April 1997 as PM of the United Front government but resigned seven months later after losing majority support. In 1996, Vajpayee, heading the NDA government, resigned on the floor of the House before the confidence motion could be put to vote, admitting he did not have the numbers in his favour.
Moreover, Dr Manmohan Singh will be the first prime minister who will not vote on a trust motion since he is not a member of the Lok Sabha.
It is also the first time since 1989 when a PM will be seeking a trust vote after four years in office. Six PMs starting from V P Singh had faced a trust vote within the first two years in office.
Only three Prime Ministers survived the trust vote so far out of the eight no confidence motions in the Parliament. Will Dr Manmohan Singh become the Lucky 4th?
Meanwhile, India is making news all around the world, not for being the largest democracy or the fastest growing economy, but for allegations of multi-million-pound bribe offers to MPs and Mayawati’s emergence as the PM-in-waiting.
Isn’t it a shame?